This strange recession in the United States that appeals to the stock market, market news

This Thursday at the Paris Stock Exchange, the day the US GDP for the second quarter is launched, Bedroom 40 It closed up 1.3% at 6,339.21 factors, regardless of poor performances from heavyweights akin to Airbus and TotalEnergy, which have been amongst plenty of corporations that launched their second-quarter accounts between yesterday night and this morning earlier than the open.

The Parisian index, after a hesitating morning to say the least, discovered – in opposition to all obvious logic – an increase in the wake of the 2:30pm announcement of a “shock” contraction in American GDP for the months since April. From June (-0.9% quarter-to-quarter in annualized information), whereas consensus was relying on a 0.4% improve. Honestly, the shock will not be that massive. If the Bloomberg consensus of economists nonetheless predicts development, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow mannequin, considered one of the regional branches of the American central financial institution, factors to a contraction in GDP.

Like others, Bruno Cavaliere, an economist at personal financial institution Odo BHF, sees this contraction. He remembered that earlier in the week “Real GDP has already fallen in the first quarter. By the widespread however questionable definition, the US would have been in recession for the first half of the 12 months… the curious recession the place employment, revenue and spending continued to develop. The weak spot of the American economic system is simple, however as of June, it was not robust sufficient to trigger adjustments in the labor market or scale back inflation. »

A contraction with no recession, that’s what the stock market prefers, particularly after the Fed’s financial coverage choices and its president’s statements. After asserting an extra 75 foundation level improve in US benchmark rates of interest, the US central financial institution, by Jerome Powell, recommended final night time that most of the financial tightening was carried out. “J” Powell mentioned that ” At some level it will likely be applicable to decelerate “The coverage fee is now in the vary of two.25-2.5%, and the chief US central banker made it clear in his assertion that the most up-to-date Fed projections – the June ones indicating that charges must be between 3% and three.5% by the finish of the 12 months – are optimum for US financial coverage. The steerage stays, even when the Fed, which intently screens inflation, can’t affirm clearly what it’ll determine at its subsequent assembly in September. By then, two new studies on the evolution of the worth index can be revealed, in July and August.

Meanwhile, considered one of the feedback that has traders leaning – which had many reactions this morning – is that the Fed is beginning to see indicators of cooling in the US economic system, which it needed to do by elevating charges. , to calm inflation, keep away from plunging the economic system into recession as a lot as doable, however know that the central financial institution’s mandate is worth stability, not financial development. The stock market is beginning to suppose that if the Fed does not go too far in elevating charges, a recession — the actual one, which destroys jobs — will lastly be averted.

Unheard of for over 70 years

To date, each time US GDP has contracted for 2 consecutive quarters since 1948, it has successfully signaled a recession, as extensively understood. But this time, though wealth created in the first economic system fell 0.9% in the second quarter in annual information, after -1.6% in the first three months of the 12 months, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) formally is not going to. Declare entry into recession.

“The annual decline is disappointing however doesn’t imply the economic system is in recession. The decline was partly due to an enormous draw from inventories, whereas most different headline indicators, together with employment, confirmed continued growth.Economist Andrew Hunter explains in Capital Economics. That mentioned, the particulars present that greater charges and runaway inflation are weighing on underlying demand and we anticipate solely a modest rebound in GDP in the second half of the 12 months. »

“The NBER could be a laughingstock if it claimed we have been in a recession once we have been creating 400,000 jobs a month.”Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, mocked American monetary tv channel CNBC earlier in the week. “I can not think about for one second that they suppose we’re in a recession. »

In the first six months of the 12 months, the United States added a mean of 457,000 nonfarm jobs per thirty days, a dynamic that is troublesome to affiliate with an financial downturn. Additionally, there are 11.3 million unfilled vacancies for under 5.9 million accessible staff.

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