RTE warned of a high risk of stress on the electricity network in January
In its newest outlook for the energy system for the coming winter, the energy transmission system operator has predicted elevated dangers of stress on the nationwide energy grid.
RTE is revising the risk of stress in the electricity network upwards beginning in 2023. The error is a delay, estimated to be about two weeks, in the availability of the nuclear fleet.
A quantity of elements clarify the delay, beginning with the social motion that affected a number of EDF nuclear energy crops and final month halted reloading operations for one to 3 weeks, relying on the website. Added to this are delays and technical setbacks related to routine upkeep, a issue rejected by network managers.
“On the different hand, this case isn’t as a consequence of stress corrosion cracking”, emphasizes Thomas Varens, Executive Director Strategy, Forecasting and Evaluation of RTE.
The supervisor of the electricity transmission network now estimates that it’s unlikely, although not not possible, that the power firm will attain the 45GW of electricity accessible in January as a consequence of delays accrued at some reactors. “Availability of round 40GW is extra doubtless, he added. To transcend this, it is going to rely on good progress of work on strain erosion and completion of upkeep actions on reactors bearing N4”.
At BFMTV Antenna, engineer Nicholas Melhan, power knowledgeable, recalled that this 40GW “corresponds to 2 thirds of the accessible nuclear fleet”. “At that point between 2010 and 2020, we have been greater than 50 to 60GW”, he continued.
“A sure quantity of reactors will undergo repairs that can be accomplished in February so we’re not actually counting on them, Thomas Varens famous. Nuclear era needs to be round 280 TWh in 2022 in opposition to 380 TWh earlier than Covid.”
This lower in the general provide of electricity era, nonetheless, is accompanied by a vital lower in electricity consumption since the starting of the faculty 12 months, which for the second reduces the risk of safety of provide for the winter. RTE estimates this to be round 5 to 7% of the pre-health disaster common between 2014 and 2019 and attributes this to the industrial sector pushed primarily by value results.
As a consequence, the supervisor’s short-term outlook is nice with a risk that declines at the finish of November and that averages “thought of” at the starting of December. It is troublesome to attract chances past this as climate forecasts past 15 days will not be solely dependable
“Based on the newest climate forecasts, a chilly entrance seems unlikely in the coming weeks,” RTE speculated.
“RTE explains that it’s only in these instances that it’s unlikely that we’ll see cuts. For a mean scenario, we must always be capable to undergo these cuts”, defined this Friday to BFMTV François-Marie Braine, Assistant Director of the Laboratory Climate and Environment of science
“If the winter may be very harsh, as we had in February 2012, it’s sure that we’ll have energy cuts in January,” he stated.
The excellent news is that France has the levers to not less than partially take care of the potential deterioration of the scenario. This is the case for hydraulic shares, which have been a trigger for concern at the finish of the summer season and whose fill ranges at the moment are near their historic common. RTE attributed this to “cautious administration by operators and scorching climate circumstances which have lowered strain on the dam.”
In addition, France may rely on enhancing its interconnections with its neighbors. Thus strengthening a cross-border hyperlink was accomplished earlier in the month, when German network operators, for his or her half, carried out measures to extend change capability. “This work results in elevated import potential for the relaxation of the winter”, indicated RTE, which indicated the web stability of electricity change in inexperienced, for the first six months.
A non-shedding price threshold of 38%
Jean-Paul Roubin, govt director prospects, markets and operations at RTE, additionally supplied particulars on the load shedding technique which is able to solely be carried out as a final resort. “We are responding to a European want [Network Code on Emergency & Restoration] That units the phrases to make sure every nation has a shedding stage, he explains. A non-shedtable price threshold is ready at 38% per class. A phase could, for instance, have 500 protected precedence prospects, however they’re served by 500 completely different strains, different prospects related to those similar strains are additionally protected.
The supervisor’s consultant, nonetheless, harassed the equitable nature of the loadshedding, which might not exempt any division and could be carried out on a rotating foundation: one division requested in the morning, the different in the night.
“There is not any plan that arranges to dump the most shopper areas first, he underlines. On the different hand, if I offload as much as 10% in the Rhône division and as a lot as in the Loire division, there’ll inevitably be extra residents. Affected in the first than in the second as a consequence of demographic variations. has been
EcoWatt is more and more used
Launched two years in the past, the Ecowatt system, nicknamed the “electricity climate forecast”, has been characterised by modest efforts in the context of an power disaster, as winter approaches. It was additionally offered as a necessary software when the authorities offered its power moderation plan in October. To date, its new software has recorded greater than 100,000 downloads throughout all platforms, whereas its web site has 350,000 registered customers.