Maintenance. Expensive life: “The year 2023 will be difficult for the French to survive”

Although inflation continues to hit the buying energy of the French, there isn’t any indication that the scenario will normalize in the coming months, predicts Philippe Moati, economist and co-founder of ObSoCo, an observatory on adjustments in society and consumption. Maintenance.

MIDI Dispatch. Consumer costs rose 6.2% year-on-year in October. But that is the lowest degree of inflation in Europe. How to clarify this French specialty?

Even the sudden drop in buying energy attributable to authorities insurance policies geared toward cushioning the shock for shoppers pales as compared to the violence of the shock. But we aren’t at the finish of inflation.

How lengthy can costs rise?

2023 will be powerful for the French to survive. Beyond that, costs will definitely retreat, however almost definitely the descent will be to a degree that will be larger than what we have now seen earlier than.

Is it worry of tomorrow that explains the 3% drop in a single year?

In truth, we see a trade-off between huge manufacturers and distributor manufacturers. The latter have been leveled over the years, the place they grew. There can also be arbitration inside the circuit. The least costly manufacturers recorded the largest positive aspects in market share. There can also be an inclination to abandon costly product classes in favor of inexpensive merchandise. So much less purple meat and extra eggs…

Are folks prone to not consuming sufficient?

Unfortunately, in surveys, we have now individuals who inform us they eat much less for monetary causes. Of these, 43% say they eat lower than they’d like, together with 13% who say sure typically. The final degree of adjustment, together with inflation, is to cut back quantity. Moreover, in mass distribution, the quantity is much less. It’s intriguing nonetheless.

Could it trigger political danger?

Yes, undoubtedly. Inflation impacts everybody, and individuals are not very accustomed to the financial system. Many folks suppose that when costs rise, it’s as a result of both the producer or the distributor or each improve their margins, whereas in actuality only a few corporations are involved. Another factor to have in mind is that buying energy is buying energy. For many individuals, that is one among the few areas wherein they’ve energy. And when buying energy declines, it may really feel such as you’re shedding management over your life. All this creates frustration, anger, particularly for the decrease center class, who really feel they’re being dragged down.

Should we count on the return of the yellow vest?

I repeat it to anybody who needs to hear it. In 2019, when in our survey we measured the phenomenon of yellow vests, those that mentioned they have been yellow vests and those that supported them, there have been 60% of the French inhabitants. The final time we did this calculation at the finish of August 2022, we have been nonetheless at 60%. So there’s at all times this hidden phenomenon with distrust in the direction of the main gamers in the political system and the economic system. I’m not a soothsayer. But it is clear that the nation is considerably on edge and it will not take lengthy for it to descend right into a social disaster.

“Consumption beneath constraint: the Lessons of the Covid-19 Crisis”, joint work beneath the path of Dominique Desjeux and Philippe Moati, co-authored by EMS.

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