Propaganda is a conspiracy of surrealism. Example: There are 7 much less days within the June calendar this month than the quantity of votes registered within the Electoral Court More than three dozen votes are deliberate for a dozen presidential candidates.

Fraud by the decision of 150 million voters continued to accentuate till October. Selection is crucial for get together and candidate conflict plans.

They paint an image of voters’ moments, their hopes and frustrations. Therefore, care is required in analyzing their outcomes, consultants advise. The intent to vote isn’t a prediction, it’s attainable on the time of departure, on the time of voting.

This is the refined distinction between need and habits. Both say an electoral reality, however the political reality has the reward of deceiving the undoubted eye.

A 12 months in the past Squid Floating within the lead with a bonus of greater than 20 share factors in comparison with the second place, Zaire Balsonaro.

Last month it reached its objective of getting 48% of the vote for the primary spherical.

In a bakery account, this may be equal to 68 million votes, the anticipated margin low cost for absenteeism, zero votes and clean votes (common 5% within the election).

Bolsonaro is swimming within the 32% vary with a possible 46 million votes.

Can this occur? The unimaginable additionally occurs in politics. However, because the Spanish author Jorge Semprún taught, it’s obligatory to decide on between speech actuality and actuality speech.

It is worth it to ask the officers of the key analysis institutes concerning the risk of Lula, Bolsonaro or another candidate successful the election within the first spherical with about 70 million votes.

They typically reply harshly: “None.” Sociologist Antonio Lavareda, from Espace, developed the behavior of repeating with emphasis on syllables: “no-nahu-ma”.

The purpose defined is that there’s a hole between the motive of the voter, the expression of will in the course of the marketing campaign and the sudden habits in the course of the voting.

4 crore voters in suspense over indefinite elections

Looking again may be instructive. In 2018, 147.3 million Brazilians had been eligible to vote. Absence, clean votes and 40.2 million within the first spherical or 29% of the full. In the second spherical they elevated to 42.3 million (30%).

In actual life, this electoral sample is more likely to repeat itself in October.

This is a chic means of saying the next: As at all times, many citizens are asserting their intention to vote which candidates are much less more likely to get within the election.

The response to the vote three and a half months in the past isn’t going to be estimated. Indefinite election for now.

There are at all times candidates who suppose they’re good. They compete with the tendencies captured within the vote and even use their very own “survey” on the road – “datapovo”, as they name it.

Some folks have a behavior of believing within the promise of each voter’s vote, if they’re positive of a positive look, a dependable translator. A powerful hangover the day after the chance election.

It occurred to Carlos Roberto Oliveira. A preferred samba singer from Bixada Fluminense, in 2004 he determined to run for councilor for the PL in Mesquita, the place Balsonaro is immediately.

I do my very own analysis on daily basis. He would go to the streets to search for voters and shortly the clashes would flip from glass to glass. The door of any inn was platform.

One morning, he mentioned, he went to the Fourth Fave, a number of of his samba scenes. He climbed on prime of the empty beer crate and hitched. “I mentioned, ‘People of my nation, is there water?’ And they answered, ‘Take it.’ ‘Do you might have a college for the children?’ They repeated: ‘Take’. ‘Do you might have police?’ ‘Take it.’ Then, I could not stand it: ‘So, why do not you modify this I …?’. And they acquired the most important reprimand. “

Of course he misplaced the election. After the hangover, he did the mathematics for the marketing campaign. He found that he was promoting extra data than votes on the poll field at Camelodromos in Rio.

Worse: At bikes in Bixada I at all times noticed a voter charging beer for a given vote. There had been solely 3,000 folks on the poll, however “about 600,000 folks present that they voted for me.”

Carlos Roberto, Dicro (1946-2012), didn’t lose his sense of humor. He wrote a samba about voters:

“I gave cement, I gave bricks

I gave sand and rebar

I climbed a hill, I went to a favela

I loaded crybaby

I gave him breakfast, uncle

Lots of cash

Even then I misplaced the election

Traitor, traitor

If there’s something that doesn’t work

A sure voter (…) ”.

VEJA’s views won’t be mirrored within the writings of the columnists

Published in VEJA, June 22, 2022, Issue No. 2794