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France must stop “at all prices,” the IMF said

Olivier Dauliary/AFP An exterior view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) constructing with the IMG brand is seen on March 27, 2020 in Washington, DC. – The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world financial system right into a recession that can require large financing to assist growing international locations, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said on March 27, 2020.

Olivier Dauliary/AFP

An exterior view of the IMF constructing (illustrative picture).

the financial system – “It’s time to stop ‘no matter it takes’.” After spending billions to bail out corporations and households from the power disaster, France must begin subsequent yr to wash up its funds, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) really useful on Monday 21 November.

“We’ve supported no matter it takes, however the time has come.” Stop it, IMF mission chief in France Jeffrey Francks informed a information convention.

Through electrical energy and gasoline costs, power vouchers, gas value concessions, enterprise help… France has elevated spending over the previous yr, the IMF estimates by greater than 2% of its GDP.

Minimum inflation, most deficit

Government initiatives have helped in controlling the price of inflation “Two to a few factors” Below the stage it will have reached with out the assist system, Jeffrey welcomed Franks.

But these distinctive expenditures have additionally weighed on public funds already severely depleted by the Covid-19 pandemic, at a time when the authorities has considerably financed partial unemployment and enterprise closures below no matter prices.

After these two crises and when the assist related to the pandemic light, “It is advisable to begin fiscal consolidation in 2023”The IMF wrote the conclusion of an financial evaluation mission to France, generally known as“Section IV”.

But that is not the path Paris is taking, the Washington institute famous. The authorities expects a public deficit of 5% subsequent yr after 4.9% this yr and plans to return under the 3% mark in 2027, whereas its bigger neighbors are betting on a fast return to those ranges.

Bruno Le Maire defends himself

“We shut down no matter it takes.”Defended Bruno Le Maire this Monday afternoon on BFMTV, and for household in addition to enterprise, “Target to be set by way of state assist in 2023”.

“Today, no matter it prices wouldn’t be cost-effective or viable.”For his half, Banque de France governor François Villeroy de Galhau speculated.

“We have already got an excessive amount of authorities debt.” (about 113% at the finish of June 2022), he argued in France 5. “When we elevate extra debt, it is a manner of passing the invoice to the subsequent era. »

By stopping progress, +0.7% is predicted in 2023

Another lesson from the doc launched on Monday, the IMF nonetheless expects France to develop by 0.7% subsequent yr. A guess is that “ensure” For Bruno Le Maire “Resistance to the French Economy”.

“That’s nice information.”Public Accounts Minister Gabriel Attal added, and extra encouraging projections than the Banque de France (which expects progress between -0.5% and 0.8% in 2023).

Still, the IMF is apprehensive “Slight stretch of deficit” In 2023, the enlargement of the power system and the continuation of the abolition of producing taxes for corporations.

Targeting energy will help “extensively” Allowing for fiscal tightening of 1 / 4 of GDP, the IMF calculates, additionally suggests a potential postponement of manufacturing tax cuts.

Pension reform and unemployment insurance coverage

According to Jeffrey Franks, different methods to scale back public spending and in the end the deficit: pension and unemployment insurance coverage reform, in addition to decreasing tax loopholes.

In phrases of unemployment insurance coverage, Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt introduced to the social companions on Monday a 25% discount in the compensation interval for jobseekers from February 1.

Jeffrey Franks additionally emphasizes the want “Make clear who cares what” between the Government and native authorities, in order to keep away from “Duplication of Expenditure between Central and Local Governments”..

In the long term, the French deficit ought to keep above the stage at which it stabilizes debt, the IMF worries. Washington establishments name for therefore “a everlasting mixture” To convey the deficit all the way down to 0.4% of GDP by 2030 relies on a discount in present expenditure progress, significantly these linked to the pandemic and power disaster.

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