Yesterday’s Datafola survey found the reason for the Workers’ Party’s dream come true Squid In the first round

It’s simple and valid math: zero, blank and excluding those who declare themselves undecided to vote, the result is Lula with 54% of valid votes – three points more than what was needed to settle the other’s presidential race on the 2nd Sunday.

It’s not impossible, but it’s difficult because of the candidate and his party’s electoral history, the unfavorable situation in the next four months of fighting, or even Clichy’s realistic rhetoric – research photography, election is a film passion.

Experience has led some PT leaders to work in situations that they consider more realistic, focusing on vulnerabilities.

One of them is the reduction of the propaganda structure related to the one existing in the Lula-Dilmar gold cycle between 2002 and 2014.

The limitations of the PT machine today, hand-in-hand in the search for votes on the basis of votes, are a direct consequence of the party shrinking in the last six years of conflict.

Between 2016 and 2020, for example, the number of PT prefectures decreased by 29.5% (from 254 to 179).

Municipal elections, note researchers such as Antonio Lavareda and Helsimara Tales, usually point to a trend of national conflict two years later.

This is the focus of concern from the PT leadership. The previous challenge was to dribble the consequences of this retreat into the municipal election machine.

This requires planning and organization, at this stage of Lula’s campaign to be offensively scarce, as well as financial resources, campaign materials and, above all, municipal leaders to traditionally mediate with different segments of the electorate.

Until 2014 there were plenty. Eight years have passed. “If the team turns upside down [a lógica da sinalização das eleições municipais]In 2022, instead of declining, growth will increase, something unprecedented will happen, ”analysts at Vector Research noted in a report sent to investors yesterday on the advice of PT Summit.

Lula’s sympathy, added to the Allies’ gear, may suffice, given today’s favorable situation described in surveys like Datafolar.

However, there are four months ahead for a dispute where Lula-Bolsonaro polarity is a trend, with all due reservations.

If maintained, on the other hand there is an adversary whose allies base (PP, PL and Republican) is relatively denser than the PT in terms of regional and municipal party structure.

It supports the government in Congress, and in the last two years it has received eight out of ten federal assets released in the so-called parallel budget.

According to the Senate Budget Committee, about 30 30 billion was spent, one-third of which was used to get mayors, councilors and state deputies involved in the re-election campaign. Balsonaro. And the government has not even started using the financial arsenal built for the campaign. There is an obvious drawback for Lular Pitt, who has been out of power for six years.

On the other hand, there is a prolonged stagnation of the presidential candidate in elections with high rejection (53% in Dataphola polls).

Clearly, Bolsonaro did not recover from the epidemic with voters. And it has not yet been able to present them as an alternative to rising and widespread inflation, eroding the ability of families to support living standards.

They blame the government, Bolsonaro pretending it doesn’t depend on him, spending his time trying to change things. That’s why it skates in elections.