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EDF’s nuclear generation will be critical until 2024… at least

The very tense state of affairs the electrical system goes to face this winter will not be a short-term downside. This is a persistent downside that will persist over time. Statistics printed by EDF on Tuesday 13 September affirm this: in 2024, nuclear manufacturing will be between 315 and 345 TWh, Electrician estimates. “This is a covid 12 months degree », famous Nicholas Goldberg, an power knowledgeable at Columbus Consulting. In 2020, a 12 months marked by a strict two-month shutdown, French nuclear energy manufacturing truly fell to 335.4 TWh, a lower of 11.6% (44 TWh) in comparison with 2019.. Its lowest degree since 1993 »Then the facility transmission community supervisor underlined RTE.

In 2024, electrical energy manufacturing ought to be barely greater than anticipated in 2023, presently estimated at between 300 and 330 TWh, barely greater than in 2022, which will stand at solely 285 TWh, a “An actual catastrophe », According to Nicholas Goldberg.

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From 2015, we knew issues have been going to get thrilling »

These statistics present that the facility disaster will final until 2024, and it’s alarming, The knowledgeable mentioned. of 2015, we knew that the state of affairs at the nuclear energy plant was going to be tense this time as a result of ten-year inspection. [arrêt de plusieurs mois de la production d’un réacteur, qui a lieu tous les dix ans, et pendant lequel un examen de sûreté est réalisé en profondeur. Les quatrièmes visites décennales (VD4), qui concernent en ce moment les plus vieux réacteurs du parc, ceux de 900 MW, comptent 20.000 activités de maintenance et de contrôles et visent à faire tendre le niveau de sûreté de ces réacteurs vers celui des EPR, ndlr], But we had no thought concerning the depth of this disaster »He admits.

Regarding the manufacturing forecast for 2024, EDF specified Integrating associated upkeep schedules ». For now, we don’t but know the magnitude of the varied components that will have an effect on the provision of the nuclear fleet in 2024. What will be the ratio of upkeep operations and ten-year inspection and corrosion issues? »requested Nicholas Goldberg.

Seven ten-year inspections scheduled for 2024

The 2024 nuclear manufacturing projections are defined by a dense industrial program and the continued implementation of the nuclear reactor management program within the context of stress corrosion incidents. »indicated, for its half EDF, with out giving additional particulars.

In late 2021, electricians found stress corrosion issues, inflicting microcracks in metal pipes, which hook up with the primary main circuit that surrounds the reactor. According to an investigation performed by EDF, 12 reactors are affected or doubtlessly affected by this incident and are subsequently presently closed. (Although the opposite 17 are presently closed for upkeep). If this phenomenon continues until 2024, upkeep shutdowns for added checks might be longer.

In addition, in 2024, seven 10-year outages are deliberate: two associated to the 1300 MW reactors of Penley 2 and Golfech 2 and 5 fourth 10-year outages for the 900 MW reactors of Blais 3, Crouse 3, Dampier 4, Gravelines. 4, Tricastin 4.

In 2024, we will nonetheless be in a tense state of affairs [sur le plan de la sécurité d’approvisionnement électrique, ndlr]. It will be essential to implement eco-signals, but in addition to implement moderation rules together with the institution of correct toll indicators and over time as it is a persistent downside. », Nicholas Goldberg emphasised.

Production has been declining since 2018

Some parts can nonetheless relieve the French electrical energy system. On the manufacturing facet, the Saint-Nazaire offshore wind farm, consisting of 80 generators, will be totally operational by the top of 2022 with 100% commissioning. It can be hoped that the Acceleration Renewable Energy Act, which will quickly be offered to the Council of Ministers, has made its first impression.

Then, France ought to be in a position to import extra electrical energy to ascertain a brand new interconnection between France and Italy through the Frejus tunnel. It ought to be totally operational subsequent month. On the opposite hand, the outcomes associated to power effectivity work most likely will not be there but.

As of 2018, French nuclear manufacturing continues to say no. Only the 12 months 2021 was marked by a fragile rise. The French nuclear energy fleet thus produced 393.2 TWh in 2018, 379.5 TWh in 2019, 335.4 TWh in 2020 and 360.7 TWh in 2021. We have to return to 2015 to get a quantity thought of 40 orders of magnitude greater than TW. regular » By all consultants within the sector. And for good motive, from 2002 to 2015, electrical energy generation from nuclear has at all times been over 400 TWh, besides in 2009.