2023, the dark yr. Ahead gas and LNG, massive problems in provide.

Here’s a Bloomberg article it’s good to keep in mind to know what is going on on and predict what is going on to occur

World LNG reserves have been “depleted” for years, the foremost Japanese importer has warned, and no long-term contracts can be found earlier than 2026, in accordance with Japan.

Apparently, no LNG is obtainable earlier than 2026. By then every part was offered! (and purchased, and saved the transport).

This scenario will intensify international competitors for LNG.

Japan has warned that international competitors for liquefied pure gas will intensify over the subsequent three years resulting from underinvestment in provide.

Long-term LNG contracts that started earlier than 2026 are ending, in accordance with a Commerce Ministry survey of Japanese corporations launched Monday. Such contracts are important for patrons, as they provide secure costs and a dependable provide over a few years.

Countries round the world are scrambling for provides of energy crops and heating gasoline from main exporters corresponding to Qatar and the United States, however little new provide has come on-line earlier than 2026. Meanwhile, Europe is scrambling to exchange Russian gas with LNG, which is fueling much more. Global scarcity of this gasoline.

This signifies that importers will probably be compelled to rely extra on the unstable and costly spot market, which at the moment trades about 3 times greater than long-term contracts. According to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers, about 30% of all LNG provides final yr have been in the spot market.

Japanese ministry officers and vitality firm executives met on the identical day to debate LNG provide plans. Japan is on monitor to develop into the world’s largest LNG importer this yr, and the nation’s first selection for energy technology.

A scarcity of funding in LNG export tasks means provides will probably be very tight in the coming years, in accordance with Commerce Department paperwork. If Russian gas pipes are fully reduce off in Europe, the world may face a scarcity of seven.6 million tonnes of LNG in January 2025, equal to a month’s price of imports for Japan, in accordance with the doc.

Japan has taken steps to strengthen its vitality safety by permitting the authorities to purchase LNG on the spot market when corporations can’t accomplish that.


LNG exists in restricted portions.

1/ No one needs to promote their LNG forwards (at mounted costs a number of years from now).

2/ Everyone sells spot, i.e. for decide up for speedy consumption with what seems to be like McDonald’s and clearly rising costs.

3/ When everybody needs LNG at the identical time and the amount is normally fixed, the worth is adjusted by exploding upwards.

4/ LNG is not going to be sufficient to exchange all Russian gas in Europe.

The yr 2023 and the winter of 2023 might be much more difficult as we may go into subsequent winter with empty reserves except the peace course of with Russia begins in a short time.

Charles Sannat

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